FINAL: Saint Mary's 71 — Santa Clara 76. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Saint Mary's 85.9 - Santa Clara 82.4 (Saint Mary's at 60.6% win probability). The spread is -4.5 and the total is 150.0.
Saint Mary's
85.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 150.0
Santa Clara
82.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
Saint Mary'sSanta Clara
-4.5
Spread (Saint Mary's)
150.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Santa Clara W4Saint Mary's L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.5% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Santa Clara
708295
Saint Mary's
748698
Projected
Saint Mary's 85.9 — Santa Clara 82.4
Actual
Saint Mary's 71 — Santa Clara 76
Pick Results
Over 147.5totalLOSS-0.50u
Spread Analysis
Saint Mary's Cover
45.2%
Santa Clara Cover
54.8%
ATS Edge: -1.6 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Saint Mary's 60.6%
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Spread
-4.5
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Total
150.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →