FINAL: Louisville 83 — South Florida 79. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Louisville 92.3 - South Florida 83.1 (Louisville at 54.3% win probability). The spread is -19.0 and the total is 158.0.
Louisville
92.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 158.0
South Florida
83.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
LouisvilleSouth Florida
-19.0
Spread (Louisville)
158.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.1% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
South Florida
718395
Louisville
8092105
Projected
Louisville 92.3 — South Florida 83.1
Actual
Louisville 83 — South Florida 79
Pick Results
OVER 164.0overWIN+0.45u
Spread Analysis
Louisville Cover
39.5%
South Florida Cover
60.5%
ATS Edge: -1.9 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Louisville 54.3%
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Spread
-19.0
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Total
158.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →