FINAL: Memphis 89 — South Florida 96. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Memphis 75.5 - South Florida 85.5 (South Florida at 75.1% win probability). The spread is 7.5 and the total is 161.5.
Memphis
75.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 161.5
South Florida
85.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
MemphisSouth Florida
+7.5
Spread (Memphis)
161.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
South FloridaMemphis L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 87.4% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
South Florida
738698
Memphis
637688
Projected
Memphis 75.5 — South Florida 85.5
Actual
Memphis 89 — South Florida 96
Pick Results
South Florida -6.5spreadWIN+0.45u
Spread Analysis
Memphis Cover
30.8%
South Florida Cover
69.2%
ATS Edge: -4.1 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
South Florida 75.1%
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Spread
+7.5
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Total
161.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →