FINAL: Duke 80 — St. John's 75. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Duke 75.0 - St. John's 67.0 (Duke at 73.4% win probability). The spread is -6.5 and the total is 141.5.
Duke
75.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 141.5
St. John's
67.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
DukeSt. John's
-6.5
Spread (Duke)
141.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 82.5% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
St. John's
566778
Duke
647586
Projected
Duke 75.0 — St. John's 67.0
Actual
Duke 80 — St. John's 75
Pick Results
Duke -6.5spreadLOSS-1.00u
Spread Analysis
Duke Cover
61.8%
St. John's Cover
38.2%
ATS Edge: +2.5 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Duke 73.4%
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Spread
-6.5
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Total
141.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →