FINAL: Duke 81 — TCU 58. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Duke 73.4 - TCU 59.0 (Duke at 78.5% win probability). The spread is -12.5 and the total is 141.0.
Duke
73.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 141.0
TCU
59.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
DukeTCU
-12.5
Spread (Duke)
141.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 92.2% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
TCU
475971
Duke
617386
Projected
Duke 73.4 — TCU 59.0
Actual
Duke 81 — TCU 58
Pick Results
Duke -12.0spreadWIN+0.91u
Spread Analysis
Duke Cover
63.7%
TCU Cover
36.3%
ATS Edge: +3.6 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Duke 78.5%
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Spread
-12.5
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Total
141.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →