FINAL: Michigan 95 — Tennessee 62. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Michigan 81.1 - Tennessee 75.4 (Michigan at 60.2% win probability). The spread is -8.0 and the total is 146.0.
Michigan
81.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 146.0
Tennessee
75.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
MichiganTennessee
-8.0
Spread (Michigan)
146.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TennesseeMichigan W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.5% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Tennessee
647587
Michigan
708193
Projected
Michigan 81.1 — Tennessee 75.4
Actual
Michigan 95 — Tennessee 62
Pick Results
Tennessee +7.0spreadLOSS-1.00u
Spread Analysis
Michigan Cover
38.4%
Tennessee Cover
61.6%
ATS Edge: -2.9 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Michigan 60.2%
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Spread
-8.0
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Total
146.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →