FINAL: Akron 79 — Toledo 76. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Akron 93.0 - Toledo 85.5 (Akron at 70.7% win probability). The spread is -8.5 and the total is 157.5.
Akron
93.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 157.5
Toledo
85.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
AkronToledo
-8.5
Spread (Akron)
157.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Toledo L5Akron W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 71.8% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Toledo
728699
Akron
7993107
Projected
Akron 93.0 — Toledo 85.5
Actual
Akron 79 — Toledo 76
Pick Results
Over 158.5totalLOSS-1.50u
Spread Analysis
Akron Cover
48.3%
Toledo Cover
51.7%
ATS Edge: -0.1 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Akron 70.7%
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Spread
-8.5
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Total
157.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →