FINAL: Nebraska 76 — Troy 47. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Nebraska 79.2 - Troy 62.3 (Nebraska at 80.1% win probability). The spread is -13.0 and the total is 138.0.
Nebraska
79.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 138.0
Troy
62.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
NebraskaTroy
-13.0
Spread (Nebraska)
138.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 96.2% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Troy
496275
Nebraska
667992
Projected
Nebraska 79.2 — Troy 62.3
Actual
Nebraska 76 — Troy 47
Pick Results
Nebraska -13.0spreadWIN+0.45u
Spread Analysis
Nebraska Cover
66.2%
Troy Cover
33.8%
ATS Edge: +5.9 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Nebraska 80.1%
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Spread
-13.0
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Total
138.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →