FINAL: UCLA 75 — UCF 71. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected UCLA 87.1 - UCF 79.0 (UCLA at 69.8% win probability). The spread is -10.5 and the total is 148.5.
UCLA
87.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 148.5
UCF
79.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
UCLAUCF
-10.5
Spread (UCLA)
148.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
UCF L5UCLA
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 71.8% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
UCF
667992
UCLA
7587100
Projected
UCLA 87.1 — UCF 79.0
Actual
UCLA 75 — UCF 71
Pick Results
Over 152.5totalLOSS-1.50u
Spread Analysis
UCLA Cover
50.5%
UCF Cover
49.5%
ATS Edge: +0.6 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
UCLA 69.8%
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Spread
-10.5
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Total
148.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →