FINAL: Duke 72 — UConn 73. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Duke 73.3 - UConn 65.4 (Duke at 55.2% win probability). The spread is -17.0 and the total is 149.0.
Duke
73.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 149.0
UConn
65.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
DukeUConn
-17.0
Spread (Duke)
149.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.7% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
UConn
546577
Duke
627385
Projected
Duke 73.3 — UConn 65.4
Actual
Duke 72 — UConn 73
Pick Results
UConn +5.0spreadWIN+0.91u
Spread Analysis
Duke Cover
39.6%
UConn Cover
60.4%
ATS Edge: -3.2 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Duke 55.2%
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Spread
-17.0
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Total
149.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →