FINAL: Villanova 76 — Utah State 86. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Villanova 76.4 - Utah State 74.0 (Villanova at 65.8% win probability). The spread is -2.0 and the total is 169.5.
Villanova
76.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 169.5
Utah State
74.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
VillanovaUtah State
-2.0
Spread (Villanova)
169.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Utah State W5Villanova L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 71.8% (4,284 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Utah State
627486
Villanova
647689
Projected
Villanova 76.4 — Utah State 74.0
Actual
Villanova 76 — Utah State 86
Pick Results
Villanova MLmlLOSS-1.00u
Spread Analysis
Villanova Cover
63.7%
Utah State Cover
36.3%
ATS Edge: +4.6 pts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Villanova 65.8%
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Spread
-2.0
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Total
169.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets College Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →