Aberg, Ludvig vs Burns, Sam prediction for June 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Burns, Sam 29 - Aberg, Ludvig 60. Aberg, Ludvig is favored with a 58.9% win probability. The spread is 0.15.
Burns, Sam
+1.73
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • U.S. Open
Aberg, Ludvig
+1.71
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Burns, SamAberg, Ludvig
-120
Best Odds
+8.0%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Aberg, Ludvig
536067
Burns, Sam
222936
Tournament Context
Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Aberg, Ludvig
Strokes Gained
+1.71/round
World Class
Course Fit
good
+0.245 SG adj
Expected Finish
60th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Aberg, Ludvig
+1.71 SG
EF 60th
Skill Gap
+0.15 SG/round
tight edge for Aberg, Ludvig
Burns, Sam
+1.73 SG
EF 29th · World Class
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
58.9%
Books Say
54.5%
Edge
+8.0%
Aberg, Ludvig vs Burns, Sam: Model gives Aberg, Ludvig 58.9% win probability vs 54.5% implied (+8.0% edge). Skill advantage: +0.16 SG/round. Expected finish: 60.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Aberg, Ludvig 58.9%
+8.0 pts
Spread
+0.1
+8.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →