Aberg, Ludvig vs Cantlay, Patrick prediction for May 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Cantlay, Patrick 34 - Aberg, Ludvig 23. Aberg, Ludvig is favored with a 64.1% win probability. The spread is 0.28.
Cantlay, Patrick
+1.44
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Truist Championship
Aberg, Ludvig
+1.71
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Cantlay, PatrickAberg, Ludvig
-150
Best Odds
+6.8%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Aberg, Ludvig
162330
Cantlay, Patrick
273441
Tournament Context
Event
Truist Championship
Course
Quail Hollow Club
Field
72 players
Wind
11 mph
Temp
76°F
Conditions
harder (+0.5)
Player Profile — Aberg, Ludvig
Strokes Gained
+1.71/round
World Class
Course Fit
neutral
+0.145 SG adj
Expected Finish
23th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Aberg, Ludvig
+1.71 SG
EF 23th
Skill Gap
+0.28 SG/round
tight edge for Aberg, Ludvig
Cantlay, Patrick
+1.44 SG
EF 34th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
64.1%
Books Say
60.0%
Edge
+6.8%
Aberg, Ludvig vs Cantlay, Patrick: Model gives Aberg, Ludvig 64.1% win probability vs 60.0% implied (+6.8% edge). Skill advantage: +0.28 SG/round. Expected finish: 23.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Aberg, Ludvig 64.1%
+6.8 pts
Spread
+0.3
+6.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →