Aberg, Ludvig vs Henley, Russell prediction for May 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Henley, Russell 32 - Aberg, Ludvig 37. Aberg, Ludvig is favored with a 59.5% win probability. The spread is 0.31.
Henley, Russell
+1.55
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Charles Schwab Challenge
Aberg, Ludvig
+1.87
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Henley, RussellAberg, Ludvig
-130
Best Odds
+3.8%
Edge
1.0u LOW
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Aberg, Ludvig
303744
Henley, Russell
253239
Tournament Context
Event
Charles Schwab Challenge
Course
Colonial CC
Field
132 players
Wind
10 mph
Temp
91°F
Conditions
harder (+0.4)
Player Profile — Aberg, Ludvig
Strokes Gained
+1.87/round
World Class
Course Fit
poor
-0.023 SG adj
Expected Finish
37th / 132
Matchup Analysis
Aberg, Ludvig
+1.87 SG
EF 37th
Skill Gap
+0.31 SG/round
tight edge for Aberg, Ludvig
Henley, Russell
+1.55 SG
EF 32th · World Class
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
59.5%
Books Say
56.5%
Edge
+3.8%
Aberg, Ludvig vs Henley, Russell: Model gives Aberg, Ludvig 59.5% win probability vs 56.5% implied (+5.3% edge). Skill advantage: +0.31 SG/round. Expected finish: 37. AI: poor course history.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Aberg, Ludvig 59.5%
+3.8 pts
Spread
+0.3
+3.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →