Ayora, Angel vs McKibbin, Tom prediction for May 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects McKibbin, Tom 107 - Ayora, Angel 110. Ayora, Angel is favored with a 60.0% win probability. The spread is 0.27.
McKibbin, Tom
+0.23
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Ayora, Angel
+0.51
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
McKibbin, TomAyora, Angel
-104
Best Odds
+17.6%
Edge
1.5u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Ayora, Angel
103110117
McKibbin, Tom
100107114
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Ayora, Angel
Strokes Gained
+0.51/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.061 SG adj
Expected Finish
110th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Ayora, Angel
+0.51 SG
EF 110th
Skill Gap
+0.27 SG/round
tight edge for Ayora, Angel
McKibbin, Tom
+0.23 SG
EF 107th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
60.0%
Books Say
51.0%
Edge
+17.6%
Ayora, Angel vs McKibbin, Tom: Model gives Ayora, Angel 60.0% win probability vs 51.0% implied (+17.6% edge). Skill advantage: +0.27 SG/round. Expected finish: 110.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Ayora, Angel 60.0%
+17.6 pts
Spread
+0.3
+17.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →