Berger, Daniel vs Homa, Max prediction for May 8, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Homa, Max 97 - Berger, Daniel 106. Berger, Daniel is favored with a 57.6% win probability. The spread is 0.23.
Homa, Max
+0.38
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Berger, Daniel
+0.60
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Homa, MaxBerger, Daniel
-121
Best Odds
+5.2%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Berger, Daniel
99106113
Homa, Max
9097104
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Berger, Daniel
Strokes Gained
+0.60/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.048 SG adj
Expected Finish
106th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Berger, Daniel
+0.60 SG
EF 106th
Skill Gap
+0.23 SG/round
tight edge for Berger, Daniel
Homa, Max
+0.38 SG
EF 97th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
57.6%
Books Say
54.8%
Edge
+5.2%
Berger, Daniel vs Homa, Max: Model gives Berger, Daniel 57.6% win probability vs 54.8% implied (+5.2% edge). Skill advantage: +0.22 SG/round. Expected finish: 106.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Berger, Daniel 57.6%
+5.2 pts
Spread
+0.2
+5.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →