Bradley, Keegan vs Smalley, Alex prediction for May 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Smalley, Alex 33 - Bradley, Keegan 44. Bradley, Keegan is favored with a 58.0% win probability. The spread is -0.27.
Smalley, Alex
+1.32
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Charles Schwab Challenge
Bradley, Keegan
+0.90
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Smalley, AlexBradley, Keegan
-105
Best Odds
+13.2%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Bradley, Keegan
374451
Smalley, Alex
263340
Tournament Context
Event
Charles Schwab Challenge
Course
Colonial CC
Field
132 players
Wind
8 mph
Temp
85°F
Conditions
harder (+0.3)
Player Profile — Bradley, Keegan
Strokes Gained
+0.90/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+0.774 SG adj
Expected Finish
44th / 132
Matchup Analysis
Bradley, Keegan
+0.90 SG
EF 44th
Skill Gap
-0.27 SG/round
tight edge for Smalley, Alex
Smalley, Alex
+1.32 SG
EF 33th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
58.0%
Books Say
51.2%
Edge
+13.2%
Bradley, Keegan vs Smalley, Alex: Model gives Bradley, Keegan 58.0% win probability vs 51.2% implied (+13.2% edge). Skill advantage: -0.27 SG/round. Expected finish: 44.
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
Bradley's +0.774 course fit (second-best in edge set) vs Smalley's neutral fit creates sustained Colonial advantage; 17-position EF gap (45.3 vs 62) and 57.1% model probability vs 51.2% market = +11.4% edge.
Key Factors
- Course fit: Bradley +0.774 vs Smalley neutral — strong Colonial specialist advantage
- Expected finish gap: 17 positions (Bradley 45.3 vs Smalley 62) — significant EF difference
- SG differential: Bradley -0.267 (negative skill gap) but fit compensates fully
- Bovada -105 = 51.2% market; model 57.1% = +5.9% edge
Risk Factors
- Bradley's SG is -0.267 (negative vs Smalley) — if course fit adjustment overstated, edge erodes
- Smalley's +0.52 SG is respectable; if fit matters less than model assumes, Smalley value
COURSE FIT DRIVENMODERATE EDGELINE VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Bradley, Keegan 58.0%
+13.2 pts
Spread
-0.3
+13.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →