Bradley, Keegan vs Thomas, Justin prediction for May 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Thomas, Justin 40 - Bradley, Keegan 34. Bradley, Keegan is favored with a 55.7% win probability. The spread is 0.17.
Thomas, Justin
+0.77
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Truist Championship
Bradley, Keegan
+0.93
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Thomas, JustinBradley, Keegan
-101
Best Odds
+10.9%
Edge
1.0u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Bradley, Keegan
273441
Thomas, Justin
334047
Tournament Context
Event
Truist Championship
Course
Quail Hollow Club
Field
72 players
Wind
11 mph
Temp
76°F
Conditions
harder (+0.5)
Player Profile — Bradley, Keegan
Strokes Gained
+0.93/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.163 SG adj
Expected Finish
34th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Bradley, Keegan
+0.93 SG
EF 34th
Skill Gap
+0.17 SG/round
tight edge for Bradley, Keegan
Thomas, Justin
+0.77 SG
EF 40th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
55.7%
Books Say
50.2%
Edge
+10.9%
Bradley, Keegan vs Thomas, Justin: Model gives Bradley, Keegan 55.7% win probability vs 50.2% implied (+10.9% edge). Skill advantage: +0.17 SG/round. Expected finish: 34.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Bradley, Keegan 55.7%
+10.9 pts
Spread
+0.2
+10.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →