Brennan, Michael vs Greyserman, Max prediction for May 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Greyserman, Max 82 - Brennan, Michael 81. Brennan, Michael is favored with a 57.1% win probability. The spread is -0.18.
Greyserman, Max
+0.40
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Brennan, Michael
+0.22
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Greyserman, MaxBrennan, Michael
-115
Best Odds
+6.7%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Brennan, Michael
748188
Greyserman, Max
758289
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
14 mph
Temp
82°F
Conditions
harder (+0.7)
Player Profile — Brennan, Michael
Strokes Gained
+0.22/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.281 SG adj
Expected Finish
81th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Brennan, Michael
+0.22 SG
EF 81th
Skill Gap
-0.18 SG/round
tight edge for Greyserman, Max
Greyserman, Max
+0.40 SG
EF 82th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
57.1%
Books Say
53.5%
Edge
+6.7%
Brennan, Michael vs Greyserman, Max: Model gives Brennan, Michael 57.1% win probability vs 53.5% implied (+6.7% edge). Skill advantage: -0.18 SG/round. Expected finish: 81.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Brennan, Michael 57.1%
+6.7 pts
Spread
-0.2
+6.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →