Brennan, Michael vs Hojgaard, Rasmus prediction for May 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Hojgaard, Rasmus 77 - Brennan, Michael 81. Brennan, Michael is favored with a 54.4% win probability. The spread is -0.26.
Hojgaard, Rasmus
+0.47
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Brennan, Michael
+0.22
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Hojgaard, RasmusBrennan, Michael
-105
Best Odds
+6.2%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Brennan, Michael
748188
Hojgaard, Rasmus
707784
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
14 mph
Temp
82°F
Conditions
harder (+0.7)
Player Profile — Brennan, Michael
Strokes Gained
+0.22/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.281 SG adj
Expected Finish
81th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Brennan, Michael
+0.22 SG
EF 81th
Skill Gap
-0.26 SG/round
tight edge for Hojgaard, Rasmus
Hojgaard, Rasmus
+0.47 SG
EF 77th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
54.4%
Books Say
51.2%
Edge
+6.2%
Brennan, Michael vs Hojgaard, Rasmus: Model gives Brennan, Michael 54.4% win probability vs 51.2% implied (+6.2% edge). Skill advantage: -0.26 SG/round. Expected finish: 81.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Brennan, Michael 54.4%
+6.2 pts
Spread
-0.3
+6.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →