Bridgeman, Jacob vs Fitzpatrick, Alex prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Fitzpatrick, Alex 98 - Bridgeman, Jacob 95. Bridgeman, Jacob is favored with a 59.5% win probability. The spread is 0.12.
Fitzpatrick, Alex
+0.80
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Bridgeman, Jacob
+0.92
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Fitzpatrick, AlexBridgeman, Jacob
-112
Best Odds
+12.7%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Bridgeman, Jacob
8895102
Fitzpatrick, Alex
9198105
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Bridgeman, Jacob
Strokes Gained
+0.92/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.058 SG adj
Expected Finish
95th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Bridgeman, Jacob
+0.92 SG
EF 95th
Skill Gap
+0.12 SG/round
tight edge for Bridgeman, Jacob
Fitzpatrick, Alex
+0.80 SG
EF 98th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
59.5%
Books Say
52.8%
Edge
+12.7%
Bridgeman, Jacob vs Fitzpatrick, Alex: Model gives Bridgeman, Jacob 59.5% win probability vs 52.8% implied (+12.7% edge). Skill advantage: +0.12 SG/round. Expected finish: 95.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Bridgeman, Jacob 59.5%
+12.7 pts
Spread
+0.1
+12.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →