Bridgeman, Jacob vs Smalley, Alex prediction for June 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Smalley, Alex 41 - Bridgeman, Jacob 90. Bridgeman, Jacob is favored with a 59.2% win probability. The spread is -0.09.
Smalley, Alex
+0.88
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • U.S. Open
Bridgeman, Jacob
+0.94
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Smalley, AlexBridgeman, Jacob
-121
Best Odds
+8.2%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Bridgeman, Jacob
839097
Smalley, Alex
344148
Tournament Context
Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Bridgeman, Jacob
Strokes Gained
+0.94/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.085 SG adj
Expected Finish
90th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Bridgeman, Jacob
+0.94 SG
EF 90th
Skill Gap
-0.09 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Smalley, Alex
+0.88 SG
EF 41th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
59.2%
Books Say
54.8%
Edge
+8.2%
Bridgeman, Jacob vs Smalley, Alex: Model gives Bridgeman, Jacob 59.2% win probability vs 54.8% implied (+8.2% edge). Expected finish: 90.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Bridgeman, Jacob 59.2%
+8.2 pts
Spread
-0.1
+8.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →