Burns, Sam vs Fowler, Rickie prediction for May 8, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Fowler, Rickie 80 - Burns, Sam 83. Burns, Sam is favored with a 54.1% win probability. The spread is -0.09.
Fowler, Rickie
+1.38
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Burns, Sam
+1.30
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Fowler, RickieBurns, Sam
-102
Best Odds
+7.1%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Burns, Sam
768390
Fowler, Rickie
738087
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Burns, Sam
Strokes Gained
+1.30/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
neutral
+0.097 SG adj
Expected Finish
83th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Burns, Sam
+1.30 SG
EF 83th
Skill Gap
-0.09 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Fowler, Rickie
+1.38 SG
EF 80th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
54.1%
Books Say
50.5%
Edge
+7.1%
Burns, Sam vs Fowler, Rickie: Model gives Burns, Sam 54.1% win probability vs 50.5% implied (+7.1% edge). Expected finish: 83.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Burns, Sam 54.1%
+7.1 pts
Spread
-0.1
+7.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →