Burns, Sam vs Matsuyama, Hideki prediction for May 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Matsuyama, Hideki 91 - Burns, Sam 84. Burns, Sam is favored with a 58.7% win probability. The spread is 0.26.
Matsuyama, Hideki
+1.03
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Burns, Sam
+1.30
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Matsuyama, HidekiBurns, Sam
-120
Best Odds
+7.6%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Burns, Sam
778491
Matsuyama, Hideki
849198
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Burns, Sam
Strokes Gained
+1.30/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
neutral
+0.097 SG adj
Expected Finish
84th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Burns, Sam
+1.30 SG
EF 84th
Skill Gap
+0.26 SG/round
tight edge for Burns, Sam
Matsuyama, Hideki
+1.03 SG
EF 91th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
58.7%
Books Say
54.5%
Edge
+7.6%
Burns, Sam vs Matsuyama, Hideki: Model gives Burns, Sam 58.7% win probability vs 54.5% implied (+7.6% edge). Skill advantage: +0.26 SG/round. Expected finish: 84.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Burns, Sam 58.7%
+7.6 pts
Spread
+0.3
+7.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →