Burns, Sam vs Scott, Adam prediction for May 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Scott, Adam 34 - Burns, Sam 25. Burns, Sam is favored with a 57.2% win probability. The spread is 0.1.
Scott, Adam
+1.26
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Truist Championship
Burns, Sam
+1.38
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Scott, AdamBurns, Sam
-110
Best Odds
+9.1%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Burns, Sam
182532
Scott, Adam
273441
Tournament Context
Event
Truist Championship
Course
Quail Hollow Club
Field
72 players
Wind
11 mph
Temp
76°F
Conditions
harder (+0.5)
Player Profile — Burns, Sam
Strokes Gained
+1.38/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
excellent
+0.333 SG adj
Expected Finish
25th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Burns, Sam
+1.38 SG
EF 25th
Skill Gap
+0.10 SG/round
tight edge for Burns, Sam
Scott, Adam
+1.26 SG
EF 34th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
57.2%
Books Say
52.4%
Edge
+9.1%
Burns, Sam vs Scott, Adam: Model gives Burns, Sam 57.2% win probability vs 52.4% implied (+9.1% edge). Skill advantage: +0.10 SG/round. Expected finish: 25.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Burns, Sam 57.2%
+9.1 pts
Spread
+0.1
+9.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →