Burns, Sam vs Spaun, J.J. prediction for May 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Spaun, J.J. 81 - Burns, Sam 83. Burns, Sam is favored with a 54.5% win probability. The spread is -0.03.
Spaun, J.J.
+1.31
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Burns, Sam
+1.30
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Spaun, J.J.Burns, Sam
-105
Best Odds
+6.4%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Burns, Sam
768390
Spaun, J.J.
748188
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Burns, Sam
Strokes Gained
+1.30/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
neutral
+0.097 SG adj
Expected Finish
83th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Burns, Sam
+1.30 SG
EF 83th
Skill Gap
-0.03 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Spaun, J.J.
+1.31 SG
EF 81th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
54.5%
Books Say
51.2%
Edge
+6.4%
Burns, Sam vs Spaun, J.J.: Model gives Burns, Sam 54.5% win probability vs 51.2% implied (+6.4% edge). Expected finish: 83.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Burns, Sam 54.5%
+6.4 pts
Spread
-0.0
+6.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →