Burns, Sam vs Thomas, Justin prediction for June 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Thomas, Justin 31 - Burns, Sam 69. Burns, Sam is favored with a 59.6% win probability. The spread is 0.31.
Thomas, Justin
+1.32
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • U.S. Open
Burns, Sam
+1.57
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Thomas, JustinBurns, Sam
-125
Best Odds
+9.2%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Burns, Sam
626976
Thomas, Justin
243138
Tournament Context
Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Burns, Sam
Strokes Gained
+1.57/round
World Class
Course Fit
neutral
+0.108 SG adj
Expected Finish
69th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Burns, Sam
+1.57 SG
EF 69th
Skill Gap
+0.31 SG/round
tight edge for Burns, Sam
Thomas, Justin
+1.32 SG
EF 31th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
59.6%
Books Say
55.6%
Edge
+9.2%
Burns, Sam vs Thomas, Justin: Model gives Burns, Sam 59.6% win probability vs 55.6% implied (+7.2% edge). Skill advantage: +0.31 SG/round. Expected finish: 69. AI: course specialist.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Burns, Sam 59.6%
+9.2 pts
Spread
+0.3
+9.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →