Cantlay, Patrick vs Fleetwood, Tommy prediction for June 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Fleetwood, Tommy 46 - Cantlay, Patrick 28. Cantlay, Patrick is favored with a 53.0% win probability. The spread is -0.09.
Fleetwood, Tommy
+1.82
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday
Cantlay, Patrick
+1.51
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Fleetwood, TommyCantlay, Patrick
+100
Best Odds
+8.1%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Cantlay, Patrick
212835
Fleetwood, Tommy
394653
Tournament Context
Event
the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday
Course
Muirfield Village GC
Field
72 players
Wind
11 mph
Temp
78°F
Conditions
harder (+0.5)
Player Profile — Cantlay, Patrick
Strokes Gained
+1.51/round
World Class
Course Fit
good
+0.276 SG adj
Expected Finish
28th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Cantlay, Patrick
+1.51 SG
EF 28th
Skill Gap
-0.09 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Fleetwood, Tommy
+1.82 SG
EF 46th · World Class
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
53.0%
Books Say
50.0%
Edge
+8.1%
Cantlay, Patrick vs Fleetwood, Tommy: Model gives Cantlay, Patrick 53.0% win probability vs 50.0% implied (+6.1% edge). Expected finish: 28. AI: course specialist.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Cantlay, Patrick 53.0%
+8.1 pts
Spread
-0.1
+8.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →