Cantlay, Patrick vs Kim, Si Woo prediction for May 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Kim, Si Woo 80 - Cantlay, Patrick 78. Cantlay, Patrick is favored with a 56.2% win probability. The spread is 0.18.
Kim, Si Woo
+1.32
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Cantlay, Patrick
+1.50
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Kim, Si WooCantlay, Patrick
-115
Best Odds
+5.1%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Cantlay, Patrick
717885
Kim, Si Woo
738087
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Cantlay, Patrick
Strokes Gained
+1.50/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
neutral
+0.017 SG adj
Expected Finish
78th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Cantlay, Patrick
+1.50 SG
EF 78th
Skill Gap
+0.18 SG/round
tight edge for Cantlay, Patrick
Kim, Si Woo
+1.32 SG
EF 80th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
56.2%
Books Say
53.5%
Edge
+5.1%
Cantlay, Patrick vs Kim, Si Woo: Model gives Cantlay, Patrick 56.2% win probability vs 53.5% implied (+5.1% edge). Skill advantage: +0.18 SG/round. Expected finish: 78.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Cantlay, Patrick 56.2%
+5.1 pts
Spread
+0.2
+5.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →