Cantlay, Patrick vs Matsuyama, Hideki prediction for June 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Matsuyama, Hideki 41 - Cantlay, Patrick 69. Cantlay, Patrick is favored with a 62.6% win probability. The spread is 0.52.
Matsuyama, Hideki
+0.90
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • U.S. Open
Cantlay, Patrick
+1.58
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Matsuyama, HidekiCantlay, Patrick
-138
Best Odds
+6.5%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Cantlay, Patrick
626976
Matsuyama, Hideki
344148
Tournament Context
Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Cantlay, Patrick
Strokes Gained
+1.58/round
World Class
Course Fit
neutral
+0.070 SG adj
Expected Finish
69th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Cantlay, Patrick
+1.58 SG
EF 69th
Skill Gap
+0.52 SG/round
meaningful edge for Cantlay, Patrick
Matsuyama, Hideki
+0.90 SG
EF 41th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
62.6%
Books Say
58.0%
Edge
+6.5%
Cantlay, Patrick vs Matsuyama, Hideki: Model gives Cantlay, Patrick 62.6% win probability vs 58.0% implied (+8.0% edge). Skill advantage: +0.52 SG/round. Expected finish: 69. AI: poor course history.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Cantlay, Patrick 62.6%
+6.5 pts
Spread
+0.5
+6.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →