Castillo, Ricky vs Hillier, Daniel prediction for May 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Hillier, Daniel 109 - Castillo, Ricky 109. Castillo, Ricky is favored with a 60.4% win probability. The spread is -0.34.
Hillier, Daniel
+0.64
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Castillo, Ricky
+0.30
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Hillier, DanielCastillo, Ricky
-107
Best Odds
+16.8%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Castillo, Ricky
102109116
Hillier, Daniel
102109116
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Castillo, Ricky
Strokes Gained
+0.30/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.142 SG adj
Expected Finish
109th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Castillo, Ricky
+0.30 SG
EF 109th
Skill Gap
-0.34 SG/round
tight edge for Hillier, Daniel
Hillier, Daniel
+0.64 SG
EF 109th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
60.4%
Books Say
51.7%
Edge
+16.8%
Castillo, Ricky vs Hillier, Daniel: Model gives Castillo, Ricky 60.4% win probability vs 51.7% implied (+16.8% edge). Skill advantage: -0.35 SG/round. Expected finish: 109.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Castillo, Ricky 60.4%
+16.8 pts
Spread
-0.3
+16.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →