Castillo, Ricky vs Moore, Taylor prediction for June 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Moore, Taylor 0 - Castillo, Ricky 88. Castillo, Ricky is favored with a 59.9% win probability. The spread is 0.05.
Moore, Taylor
+0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • RBC Canadian Open
Castillo, Ricky
+0.28
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Moore, TaylorCastillo, Ricky
-119
Best Odds
+10.2%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Tournament Context
Event
RBC Canadian Open
Course
TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley (North Course)
Field
147 players
Player Profile — Castillo, Ricky
Strokes Gained
+0.28/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.169 SG adj
Expected Finish
88th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Castillo, Ricky
+0.28 SG
EF 88th
Skill Gap
+0.05 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Moore, Taylor
+0.00 SG
EF 0th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
59.9%
Books Say
54.3%
Edge
+10.2%
Castillo, Ricky vs Moore, Taylor: Model gives Castillo, Ricky 59.9% win probability vs 54.3% implied (+10.2% edge). Expected finish: 88.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Castillo, Ricky 59.9%
+10.2 pts
Spread
+0.1
+10.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →