Cauley, Bud vs Harman, Brian prediction for May 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Harman, Brian 53 - Cauley, Bud 37. Cauley, Bud is favored with a 65.3% win probability. The spread is -0.01.
Harman, Brian
+0.54
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Truist Championship
Cauley, Bud
+0.53
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Harman, BrianCauley, Bud
-115
Best Odds
+22.0%
Edge
2.0u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Cauley, Bud
303744
Harman, Brian
465360
Tournament Context
Event
Truist Championship
Course
Quail Hollow Club
Field
72 players
Wind
11 mph
Temp
76°F
Conditions
harder (+0.5)
Player Profile — Cauley, Bud
Strokes Gained
+0.53/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+0.311 SG adj
Expected Finish
37th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Cauley, Bud
+0.53 SG
EF 37th
Skill Gap
-0.01 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Harman, Brian
+0.54 SG
EF 53th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
65.3%
Books Say
53.5%
Edge
+22.0%
Cauley, Bud vs Harman, Brian: Model gives Cauley, Bud 65.3% win probability vs 53.5% implied (+22.0% edge). Expected finish: 37.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Cauley, Bud 65.3%
+22.0 pts
Spread
-0.0
+22.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →