PGA Tour Golf

Cauley, Bud vs Scott, Adam Prediction

June 25, 2026

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Cauley, Bud vs Scott, Adam prediction for June 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Scott, Adam 0 - Cauley, Bud 36. Cauley, Bud is favored with a 54.5% win probability. The spread is -0.2.

Scott, Adam
+0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS H2H • Travelers Championship
Cauley, Bud
+0.93
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
45.5%
54.5%
Scott, AdamCauley, Bud
+103
Best Odds
+10.6%
Edge
1.0u HIGH
Sizing
FINALCauley, Bud (T2) def Scott, Adam (T62)

Tournament Context

Event
Travelers Championship
Course
TPC River Highlands
Field
72 players
Wind
9 mph
Temp
84°F
Conditions
harder (+0.4)

Player Profile — Cauley, Bud

Strokes Gained
+0.93/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.284 SG adj
Expected Finish
36th / 72

Matchup Analysis

Cauley, Bud
+0.93 SG
EF 36th
Skill Gap
-0.20 SG/round
tight edge for Scott, Adam
Scott, Adam
+0.00 SG
EF 0th · Tour Avg

Edge Breakdown

Our Model
54.5%
Books Say
49.3%
Edge
+10.6%

Cauley, Bud vs Scott, Adam: Model gives Cauley, Bud 54.5% win probability vs 49.3% implied (+10.6% edge). Skill advantage: -0.20 SG/round. Expected finish: 36.

Edge Analysis

Moneyline
Cauley, Bud 54.5%
+10.6 pts
Spread
-0.2
+10.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →

Want Premium Predictions?

Get full access to all picks, detailed game-by-game analysis, and Kelly-optimized unit sizing across 9 leagues.

Go Premium Free Picks