Cauley, Bud vs Theegala, Sahith prediction for April 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Theegala, Sahith 51 - Cauley, Bud 37. Cauley, Bud is favored with a 62.3% win probability. The spread is -0.27.
Theegala, Sahith
+0.81
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Truist Championship
Cauley, Bud
+0.53
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Theegala, SahithCauley, Bud
-115
Best Odds
+16.5%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Cauley, Bud
303744
Theegala, Sahith
445158
Tournament Context
Event
Truist Championship
Course
Quail Hollow Club
Field
72 players
Wind
11 mph
Temp
76°F
Conditions
harder (+0.5)
Player Profile — Cauley, Bud
Strokes Gained
+0.53/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+0.311 SG adj
Expected Finish
37th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Cauley, Bud
+0.53 SG
EF 37th
Skill Gap
-0.27 SG/round
tight edge for Theegala, Sahith
Theegala, Sahith
+0.81 SG
EF 51th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
62.3%
Books Say
53.5%
Edge
+16.5%
Cauley, Bud vs Theegala, Sahith: Model gives Cauley, Bud 62.3% win probability vs 53.5% implied (+16.5% edge). Skill advantage: -0.27 SG/round. Expected finish: 37.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Cauley, Bud 62.3%
+16.5 pts
Spread
-0.3
+16.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →