Clark, Wyndham vs Greyserman, Max prediction for May 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Greyserman, Max 78 - Clark, Wyndham 76. Clark, Wyndham is favored with a 59.5% win probability. The spread is 0.13.
Greyserman, Max
+0.56
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Clark, Wyndham
+0.52
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Greyserman, MaxClark, Wyndham
-129
Best Odds
+5.6%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Clark, Wyndham
697683
Greyserman, Max
717885
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
15 mph
Temp
82°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Clark, Wyndham
Strokes Gained
+0.52/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.146 SG adj
Expected Finish
76th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Clark, Wyndham
+0.52 SG
EF 76th
Skill Gap
+0.13 SG/round
tight edge for Clark, Wyndham
Greyserman, Max
+0.56 SG
EF 78th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
59.5%
Books Say
56.3%
Edge
+5.6%
Clark, Wyndham vs Greyserman, Max: Model gives Clark, Wyndham 59.5% win probability vs 56.3% implied (+5.6% edge). Skill advantage: +0.13 SG/round. Expected finish: 76.
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +0YELLOW ZONE0.6% WR (n=380)
Clark's +0.127 skill advantage and +0.146 course fit create +6.5% edge (59.97% vs 56.33%) in mid-field match; modest differentiators and steep odds (-129) limit conviction to LEAN.
Key Factors
- Skill advantage: +0.127 (Clark edge)
- Course fit: +0.146 (Clark slight advantage)
- SG total: +0.521 (Clark advantage)
- EF: 76.2 both (near-parity)
- Edge: +6.5% at -129 Betcris (steep, negative odds)
Risk Factors
- Steep odds (-129) are expensive for modest edge
- EF near-parity (76.2 both) suggests coin-flip despite SG total
- Skill +0.127 is modest
MODEST EDGESTEEP ODDS
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Clark, Wyndham 59.5%
+5.6 pts
Spread
+0.1
+5.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →