Clark, Wyndham vs Hatton, Tyrrell prediction for June 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Hatton, Tyrrell 0 - Clark, Wyndham 80. Clark, Wyndham is favored with a 54.8% win probability. The spread is 0.29.
Hatton, Tyrrell
+0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • U.S. Open
Clark, Wyndham
+1.31
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Hatton, TyrrellClark, Wyndham
+100
Best Odds
+9.6%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Tournament Context
Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Clark, Wyndham
Strokes Gained
+1.31/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
poor
-0.003 SG adj
Expected Finish
80th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Clark, Wyndham
+1.31 SG
EF 80th
Skill Gap
+0.29 SG/round
tight edge for Clark, Wyndham
Hatton, Tyrrell
+0.00 SG
EF 0th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
54.8%
Books Say
50.0%
Edge
+9.6%
Clark, Wyndham vs Hatton, Tyrrell: Model gives Clark, Wyndham 54.8% win probability vs 50.0% implied (+9.6% edge). Skill advantage: +0.29 SG/round. Expected finish: 80.
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +0
Model shows +10.1% edge for Clark, but Hatton's exceptional +0.368 Shinnecock fit and neutral -0.003 fit for Clark suggests market is fairly pricing the matchup despite skill gap.
Key Factors
- Skill differential: +0.286 SG/round in Clark's favor
- Course fit gap: Hatton +0.368 vs Clark -0.003 (0.371 point reversal on fit)
- Expected finish variance: Hatton projects 78.5 vs Clark 80.6—only 2.1 strokes
- Hatton is U.S. Open course specialist per fit adjustment
Risk Factors
- Hatton's dominant Shinnecock fit (+0.368) may not fully decay in single H2H (major championships punish poor course fit heavily)
- Clark's neutral fit (-0.003) suggests undervaluation of course difficulty; 10.1% edge may overstate true probability
COURSE FIT CONCERNNEUTRAL SKILL GAP AFTER FIT ADJ
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Clark, Wyndham 54.8%
+9.6 pts
Spread
+0.3
+9.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →