Cole, Eric vs Rai, Aaron prediction for June 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Rai, Aaron 83 - Cole, Eric 70. Cole, Eric is favored with a 50.1% win probability. The spread is 0.03.
Rai, Aaron
+0.96
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • RBC Canadian Open
Cole, Eric
+1.07
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Rai, AaronCole, Eric
+110
Best Odds
+5.2%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Cole, Eric
637077
Rai, Aaron
768390
Tournament Context
Event
RBC Canadian Open
Course
TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley (North Course)
Field
147 players
Player Profile — Cole, Eric
Strokes Gained
+1.07/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
neutral
+0.030 SG adj
Expected Finish
70th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Cole, Eric
+1.07 SG
EF 70th
Skill Gap
+0.03 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Rai, Aaron
+0.96 SG
EF 83th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
50.1%
Books Say
47.6%
Edge
+5.2%
Cole, Eric vs Rai, Aaron: Model gives Cole, Eric 50.1% win probability vs 47.6% implied (+5.2% edge). Expected finish: 70.
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL +0YELLOW ZONE0.6% WR (n=201)
Cole and Rai are nearly identical (Cole SG 1.07 vs Rai 1.03; expected finish 69.5 vs 63.0), but Rai has +0.304 course-fit advantage that model may undervalue; edge is marginal, tight odds require >52% to profit—SKIP.
Key Factors
- Skill gap: Cole +0.04 SG/round (negligible)
- Course-fit gap: Rai +0.304 vs Cole +0.03 (Rai benefits more from venue)
- Expected finish gap: Cole 69.5 vs Rai 63.0 (6.5 points, but modest for matched talent)
- Model probability: 50.1% (coin flip, barely above 50%)
- Odds +110 require 52%+ to profit; model falls short at 50.1%
Risk Factors
- Cole/Rai are nearly equal; matchup is noise-dominated
- Rai's +0.304 course fit is substantial and may not be fully captured in expected finish
- Tight odds (+110) create unfavorable risk/reward even if model is correct
COIN FLIPTIGHT ODDSMARGINAL EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Cole, Eric 50.1%
+5.2 pts
Spread
+0.0
+5.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →