Conners, Corey vs Taylor, Nick prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Taylor, Nick 100 - Conners, Corey 96. Conners, Corey is favored with a 58.5% win probability. The spread is -0.17.
Taylor, Nick
+0.94
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Conners, Corey
+0.76
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Taylor, NickConners, Corey
-120
Best Odds
+7.3%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Conners, Corey
8996103
Taylor, Nick
93100107
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Conners, Corey
Strokes Gained
+0.76/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.149 SG adj
Expected Finish
96th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Conners, Corey
+0.76 SG
EF 96th
Skill Gap
-0.17 SG/round
tight edge for Taylor, Nick
Taylor, Nick
+0.94 SG
EF 100th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
58.5%
Books Say
54.5%
Edge
+7.3%
Conners, Corey vs Taylor, Nick: Model gives Conners, Corey 58.5% win probability vs 54.5% implied (+7.3% edge). Skill advantage: -0.17 SG/round. Expected finish: 96.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Conners, Corey 58.5%
+7.3 pts
Spread
-0.2
+7.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →