Coody, Pierceson vs Hisatsune, Ryo prediction for May 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Hisatsune, Ryo 58 - Coody, Pierceson 69. Coody, Pierceson is favored with a 54.9% win probability. The spread is -0.06.
Hisatsune, Ryo
+0.66
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Coody, Pierceson
+0.55
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Hisatsune, RyoCoody, Pierceson
-105
Best Odds
+7.2%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Coody, Pierceson
626976
Hisatsune, Ryo
515865
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
15 mph
Temp
81°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Coody, Pierceson
Strokes Gained
+0.55/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+0.332 SG adj
Expected Finish
69th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Coody, Pierceson
+0.55 SG
EF 69th
Skill Gap
-0.06 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Hisatsune, Ryo
+0.66 SG
EF 58th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
54.9%
Books Say
51.2%
Edge
+7.2%
Coody, Pierceson vs Hisatsune, Ryo: Model gives Coody, Pierceson 54.9% win probability vs 51.2% implied (+7.2% edge). Expected finish: 69.
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE0.5% WR (n=380)
Coody has skill edge (+0.55 SG total) and course fit (+0.332 SG), but expected finishes are nearly identical (68 vs 71), and 6.7% edge on -105 is thin. Skip.
Key Factors
- SG Total: Coody +0.55 vs Hisatsune +0.61 (Hisatsune is slightly better)
- Course fit: Coody +0.332 vs Hisatsune +0.181 (Coody better)
- Expected finish: Coody 68 vs Hisatsune 71 (3-place gap, noise)
- Odds: -105 (implied 51.2% vs model 54.6% = +3.4% edge)
- Skill differential: -0.059 (Hisatsune is slightly better)
Risk Factors
- Hisatsune is actually better in raw skill (+0.61 vs +0.55 SG)
- Expected finishes are nearly tied (68 vs 71), within variance
- 6.7% edge is thin and fairly priced at -105
MARGINAL EDGENEARLY IDENTICAL EFWORSE BASE SKILLSKIP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Coody, Pierceson 54.9%
+7.2 pts
Spread
-0.1
+7.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →