Coody, Pierceson vs Mitchell, Keith prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Mitchell, Keith 71 - Coody, Pierceson 69. Coody, Pierceson is favored with a 55.9% win probability. The spread is -0.07.
Mitchell, Keith
+0.61
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Coody, Pierceson
+0.55
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Mitchell, KeithCoody, Pierceson
+100
Best Odds
+11.8%
Edge
1.0u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Coody, Pierceson
626976
Mitchell, Keith
647178
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
15 mph
Temp
81°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Coody, Pierceson
Strokes Gained
+0.55/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+0.332 SG adj
Expected Finish
69th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Coody, Pierceson
+0.55 SG
EF 69th
Skill Gap
-0.07 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Mitchell, Keith
+0.61 SG
EF 71th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
55.9%
Books Say
50.0%
Edge
+11.8%
Coody, Pierceson vs Mitchell, Keith: Model gives Coody, Pierceson 55.9% win probability vs 50.0% implied (+11.8% edge). Expected finish: 69.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Coody, Pierceson 55.9%
+11.8 pts
Spread
-0.1
+11.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →