Coody, Pierceson vs Mitchell, Keith prediction for May 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Mitchell, Keith 67 - Coody, Pierceson 69. Coody, Pierceson is favored with a 55.4% win probability. The spread is -0.07.
Mitchell, Keith
+0.82
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Coody, Pierceson
+0.55
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Mitchell, KeithCoody, Pierceson
+100
Best Odds
+10.9%
Edge
1.0u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Coody, Pierceson
626976
Mitchell, Keith
606774
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
15 mph
Temp
82°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Coody, Pierceson
Strokes Gained
+0.55/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+0.332 SG adj
Expected Finish
69th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Coody, Pierceson
+0.55 SG
EF 69th
Skill Gap
-0.07 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Mitchell, Keith
+0.82 SG
EF 67th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
55.4%
Books Say
50.0%
Edge
+10.9%
Coody, Pierceson vs Mitchell, Keith: Model gives Coody, Pierceson 55.4% win probability vs 50.0% implied (+10.9% edge). Expected finish: 69.
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +0YELLOW ZONE0.6% WR (n=380)
Coody's +0.55 SG total and +0.332 course fit create +11.8% edge (55.92% vs 50.0%) against stronger Mitchell; close EF (69.1 vs 70.7) and moderate odds suggest coin-flip.
Key Factors
- SG total: +0.55 (Coody advantage)
- Course fit: +0.332 (Coody better suited)
- EF: 69.1 vs Mitchell 70.7 (very close finish positions)
- Edge: +11.8% at +100 even odds
- Slight skill gap: -0.067 to Mitchell (Mitchell marginally better)
Risk Factors
- EF parity (69.1 vs 70.7) suggests near-coin-flip
- Even odds at +100 already reflect edge
- Moderate variance mid-field match
EF PARITYEVEN ODDS
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Coody, Pierceson 55.4%
+10.9 pts
Spread
-0.1
+10.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →