Coody, Pierceson vs Thompson, Davis prediction for May 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Thompson, Davis 74 - Coody, Pierceson 69. Coody, Pierceson is favored with a 55.0% win probability. The spread is -0.04.
Thompson, Davis
+0.43
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Coody, Pierceson
+0.55
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Thompson, DavisCoody, Pierceson
-103
Best Odds
+8.3%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Coody, Pierceson
626976
Thompson, Davis
677481
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
15 mph
Temp
81°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Coody, Pierceson
Strokes Gained
+0.55/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+0.332 SG adj
Expected Finish
69th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Coody, Pierceson
+0.55 SG
EF 69th
Skill Gap
-0.04 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Thompson, Davis
+0.43 SG
EF 74th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
55.0%
Books Say
50.7%
Edge
+8.3%
Coody, Pierceson vs Thompson, Davis: Model gives Coody, Pierceson 55.0% win probability vs 50.7% implied (+8.3% edge). Expected finish: 69.
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE0.5% WR (n=380)
Coody has course fit (+0.332 SG) and similar skill (+0.55 vs +0.59 SG total), but expected finishes are nearly identical (68 vs 70), and 6.6% edge on -107 is marginal. Skip to avoid Coody concentration.
Key Factors
- SG Total: Coody +0.55 vs Thompson +0.59 (Thompson slightly better)
- Course fit: Coody +0.332 vs Thompson +0.225 (Coody better)
- Expected finish: Coody 68 vs Thompson 70 (2-place gap, noise)
- Odds: -107 (implied 51.7% vs model 55.1% = +3.4% edge)
- Skill differential: -0.04 (Thompson slightly better)
Risk Factors
- This is Coody's SECOND matchup in the set (also vs Hisatsune at -105). Concentration risk.
- Expected finishes are nearly identical (68 vs 70), within variance
- 6.6% edge is marginal and fairly priced at -107
CONCENTRATION RISKCOODY REPETITIONMARGINAL EDGENEARLY IDENTICAL EFSKIP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Coody, Pierceson 55.0%
+8.3 pts
Spread
-0.0
+8.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →