Day, Jason vs Hojgaard, Nicolai prediction for May 8, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Hojgaard, Nicolai 30 - Day, Jason 20. Day, Jason is favored with a 58.4% win probability. The spread is -0.06.
Hojgaard, Nicolai
+1.03
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Truist Championship
Day, Jason
+1.00
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Hojgaard, NicolaiDay, Jason
-105
Best Odds
+13.9%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Day, Jason
132027
Hojgaard, Nicolai
233037
Tournament Context
Event
Truist Championship
Course
Quail Hollow Club
Field
72 players
Wind
12 mph
Temp
76°F
Conditions
harder (+0.6)
Player Profile — Day, Jason
Strokes Gained
+1.00/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
excellent
+1.211 SG adj
Expected Finish
20th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Day, Jason
+1.00 SG
EF 20th
Skill Gap
-0.06 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Hojgaard, Nicolai
+1.03 SG
EF 30th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
58.4%
Books Say
51.2%
Edge
+13.9%
Day, Jason vs Hojgaard, Nicolai: Model gives Day, Jason 58.3% win probability vs 51.2% implied (+13.9% edge). Expected finish: 20.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Day, Jason 58.4%
+13.9 pts
Spread
-0.1
+13.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →