Day, Jason vs Hovland, Viktor prediction for April 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Hovland, Viktor 31 - Day, Jason 20. Day, Jason is favored with a 59.0% win probability. The spread is -0.23.
Hovland, Viktor
+1.21
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Truist Championship
Day, Jason
+1.00
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Hovland, ViktorDay, Jason
+100
Best Odds
+18.0%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Day, Jason
132027
Hovland, Viktor
243138
Tournament Context
Event
Truist Championship
Course
Quail Hollow Club
Field
72 players
Wind
12 mph
Temp
76°F
Conditions
harder (+0.6)
Player Profile — Day, Jason
Strokes Gained
+1.00/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
excellent
+1.211 SG adj
Expected Finish
20th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Day, Jason
+1.00 SG
EF 20th
Skill Gap
-0.23 SG/round
tight edge for Hovland, Viktor
Hovland, Viktor
+1.21 SG
EF 31th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
59.0%
Books Say
50.0%
Edge
+18.0%
Day, Jason vs Hovland, Viktor: Model gives Day, Jason 59.0% win probability vs 50.0% implied (+18.0% edge). Skill advantage: -0.23 SG/round. Expected finish: 20.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Day, Jason 59.0%
+18.0 pts
Spread
-0.2
+18.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →