Day, Jason vs Rose, Justin prediction for May 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Rose, Justin 46 - Day, Jason 20. Day, Jason is favored with a 71.9% win probability. The spread is -0.07.
Rose, Justin
+1.05
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Truist Championship
Day, Jason
+1.00
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Rose, JustinDay, Jason
-115
Best Odds
+34.4%
Edge
2.0u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Day, Jason
132027
Rose, Justin
394653
Tournament Context
Event
Truist Championship
Course
Quail Hollow Club
Field
72 players
Wind
11 mph
Temp
76°F
Conditions
harder (+0.5)
Player Profile — Day, Jason
Strokes Gained
+1.00/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
excellent
+1.211 SG adj
Expected Finish
20th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Day, Jason
+1.00 SG
EF 20th
Skill Gap
-0.07 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Rose, Justin
+1.05 SG
EF 46th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
71.9%
Books Say
53.5%
Edge
+34.4%
Day, Jason vs Rose, Justin: Model gives Day, Jason 71.9% win probability vs 53.5% implied (+34.4% edge). Expected finish: 20.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Day, Jason 71.9%
+34.4 pts
Spread
-0.1
+34.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →