DeChambeau, Bryson vs Fitzpatrick, Matt prediction for May 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Fitzpatrick, Matt 62 - DeChambeau, Bryson 62. DeChambeau, Bryson is favored with a 51.7% win probability. The spread is -0.46.
Fitzpatrick, Matt
+1.77
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
DeChambeau, Bryson
+1.32
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Fitzpatrick, MattDeChambeau, Bryson
+107
Best Odds
+7.1%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
DeChambeau, Bryson
556269
Fitzpatrick, Matt
556269
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — DeChambeau, Bryson
Strokes Gained
+1.32/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
excellent
+0.790 SG adj
Expected Finish
62th / 156
Matchup Analysis
DeChambeau, Bryson
+1.32 SG
EF 62th
Skill Gap
-0.46 SG/round
meaningful edge for Fitzpatrick, Matt
Fitzpatrick, Matt
+1.77 SG
EF 62th · World Class
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
51.7%
Books Say
48.3%
Edge
+7.1%
DeChambeau, Bryson vs Fitzpatrick, Matt: Model gives DeChambeau, Bryson 51.7% win probability vs 48.3% implied (+7.1% edge). Skill advantage: -0.46 SG/round. Expected finish: 62.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DeChambeau, Bryson 51.7%
+7.1 pts
Spread
-0.5
+7.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →