DeChambeau, Bryson vs Fleetwood, Tommy prediction for May 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Fleetwood, Tommy 66 - DeChambeau, Bryson 61. DeChambeau, Bryson is favored with a 55.2% win probability. The spread is -0.35.
Fleetwood, Tommy
+1.66
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
DeChambeau, Bryson
+1.32
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Fleetwood, TommyDeChambeau, Bryson
+100
Best Odds
+10.3%
Edge
1.0u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
DeChambeau, Bryson
546168
Fleetwood, Tommy
596673
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — DeChambeau, Bryson
Strokes Gained
+1.32/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
excellent
+0.790 SG adj
Expected Finish
61th / 156
Matchup Analysis
DeChambeau, Bryson
+1.32 SG
EF 61th
Skill Gap
-0.35 SG/round
tight edge for Fleetwood, Tommy
Fleetwood, Tommy
+1.66 SG
EF 66th · World Class
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
55.2%
Books Say
50.0%
Edge
+10.3%
DeChambeau, Bryson vs Fleetwood, Tommy: Model gives DeChambeau, Bryson 55.2% win probability vs 50.0% implied (+10.3% edge). Skill advantage: -0.35 SG/round. Expected finish: 61.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DeChambeau, Bryson 55.2%
+10.3 pts
Spread
-0.3
+10.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →