DeChambeau, Bryson vs Koepka, Brooks prediction for June 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Koepka, Brooks 0 - DeChambeau, Bryson 74. DeChambeau, Bryson is favored with a 58.9% win probability. The spread is 0.59.
Koepka, Brooks
+0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • U.S. Open
DeChambeau, Bryson
+1.27
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Koepka, BrooksDeChambeau, Bryson
-125
Best Odds
+4.6%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Tournament Context
Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — DeChambeau, Bryson
Strokes Gained
+1.27/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
good
+0.223 SG adj
Expected Finish
74th / 156
Matchup Analysis
DeChambeau, Bryson
+1.27 SG
EF 74th
Skill Gap
+0.59 SG/round
meaningful edge for DeChambeau, Bryson
Koepka, Brooks
+0.00 SG
EF 0th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
58.9%
Books Say
55.6%
Edge
+4.6%
DeChambeau, Bryson vs Koepka, Brooks: Model gives DeChambeau, Bryson 58.9% win probability vs 55.6% implied (+6.1% edge). Skill advantage: +0.59 SG/round. Expected finish: 74. AI: poor course history.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DeChambeau, Bryson 58.9%
+4.6 pts
Spread
+0.6
+4.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →