Detry, Thomas vs Fitzpatrick, Alex prediction for May 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Fitzpatrick, Alex 100 - Detry, Thomas 42. Detry, Thomas is favored with a 66.6% win probability. The spread is 0.1.
Fitzpatrick, Alex
+0.80
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Detry, Thomas
+0.90
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Fitzpatrick, AlexDetry, Thomas
-125
Best Odds
+19.8%
Edge
2.0u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Detry, Thomas
354249
Fitzpatrick, Alex
93100107
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Detry, Thomas
Strokes Gained
+0.90/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+1.906 SG adj
Expected Finish
42th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Detry, Thomas
+0.90 SG
EF 42th
Skill Gap
+0.10 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Fitzpatrick, Alex
+0.80 SG
EF 100th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
66.6%
Books Say
55.6%
Edge
+19.8%
Detry, Thomas vs Fitzpatrick, Alex: Model gives Detry, Thomas 66.6% win probability vs 55.6% implied (+19.8% edge). Expected finish: 42.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Detry, Thomas 66.6%
+19.8 pts
Spread
+0.1
+19.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →